Containment Numbers, Fire Reality

They’re not the same thing.

I’ve spent the last twenty summers in the Columbia Gorge.
Every year, there’s fire.

Sometimes across the river.
Sometimes just over the ridge.
Sometimes close enough to see flames with the naked eye.
One year, my whole property went up—
trees, fence, travel trailer. Gone.

When a fire starts, my main concern is:
How big is it going to get, and where is it going to go?

But the number they give us is always:
percent contained.

At first, I assumed this number was meant to give me a sense on whether or not the fire was growing.
A report of 0% sounds really scary.
It sounds like this thing is completely out of control and how big it gets is anybody’s guess.
I have heard reports of 0% containment for days on end every year.

But it turns out containment doesn’t mean that.
It just means how much of the edge has been lined.
Dozers, rivers, burnouts.

You can have a fire doubling in size every day
and still be told it’s 70% contained.
Or a fire that’s almost out,
smoldering in ash,
but never technically surrounded.
Zero percent.

I’m sure the number is very useful to the firefighters, and I find it interesting too.
It’s just that it’s reported as the best summary of the current situation.
I’m much more interested in the growth rate of the fire than I am the growth rate of the fire crew.
It sure would be nice if they had a number for that.